As the countdown to the Edo Gubernatorial elections progresses, anticipation builds for the swift transition from a slow march to a quick march once INEC greenlights campaigns. With political intrigues and maneuvering becoming the norm, the race is set to intensify.

Currently, the contest appears to shape up as a three-horse race, with the APC, PDP, and LP emerging as frontrunners, each with strong prospects to secure the ticket. Today, we delve into a brief analysis of the chances of these three political parties.

However, it’s imperative to acknowledge three significant factors that will influence the elections: tribal sentiments/propaganda, the power of incumbency, and the electorate’s sway.

We will dissect the dynamics of the Edo gubernatorial elections and assess the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats faced by the key players.

The Benin Vs Esan Agenda

The APC is presenting an Esan candidate and the PDP is also sitting on an Esan Agenda while the LP has a candidate from the South which is made up of the Benin’s.

The PDP gubernatorial candidate appears to be very eloquent and bold with some savviness laced with a likable charisma while the APC gubernatorial candidate seems to be reserved and introverted, but highly popular in the Edo Central, his region where he represents his people as the senator in the National Assembly.

Both candidates of the PDP and APC are freshers when it comes to elective politics as they may have been at the background but not visible players, this is their first shot at electioneering, Asue is new to the game while Okpebholo of the APC came to the limelight in his first attempt at the senate which he won.

Then Akpata of the LP comes from a rich historical background in Benin City, the cradle of civilisation in the state.

With their emphasis on education and civic engagement, the Benin’s positioned itself as the vanguard of enlightened electorates, setting an example for neighboring communities to follow. Akpata has a charisma that is awesome and strikes like a Royale candidate for the Benin’s.

Edo South has the highest numbers of voters and they can not be easily swayed with sentiments if they choose not to. So in the battle for the Esans and Benins, the two candidates of the APC and PDP would strike themselves out and leave little room for the LP, but in the south the LP would be coming from an advantageous position.

Take note that this permutation strongly exist but does not make up to 50% of the electorates but the gospel truth is that it would influence some votes and it would be in favour of the LP.

You know we tagged it tribal sentiments and propaganda, once the campaigns kick off later in the month, propaganda would commence alongside and each of these candidates would be targeted in order to influence the decisions of the electorate.

Already, Asue and Okpebholo have already been victims to these attacks and it would only intensify as the days go by. Akpata would joy the fray as soon as his momentum sets in.

The verdict: APC and PDP would strike themselves out in this game in Edo Central with LP lurking around to reap the benefits.

Power Of incumbencies:

Now, when I refer to the power of incumbencies, I am addressing both sides: the PDP, which currently holds control of the state with Obaseki as the governor, and the APC, which holds power at the federal level with Tinubu, a prominent politician, as the president.

This would play a major factor because in essence, it gives the impression to followers that there is a reason to fight, it gives them assurance to push their party candidate forward because for each side, they believe the power of incumbency would play which they both have either at the state or at the federal level.

Verdict: This could swing either way in favor of APC or PDP, a loss to LP.

The electorate:

Now this does not really need much explanation as they remain the ultimate decider in every election but yet there is a political region that holds sway, which is Edo North, under the full leadership of Adams Oshiomhole, this happens to be so because for long time, or rather since inception of the state, nobody from the state has really taken up such a leadership position.

During his time as Governor, Adams Oshiomhole not only worked on developing Edo State but also empowered leaders from Edo North. This made him the most influential figure in the state, as he gained control over his constituents through his integrity and dedication to their welfare. He didn’t force this influence but earned it through his selfless leadership.

Adams Oshiomhole would play the highest role as an individual in influencing votes in the coming election. As it stands, Edo North remains the beautiful bride for the Esan’s and Benins.

As the political landscape evolves and alliances shift, the coming storm in the Edo elections promises a battle of epic proportions, with each candidate and party vying for supremacy in the quest to lead the state into its next chapter of governance.